Monday, March 5, 2018

Market out look dated5th March 2018

 Market are continue in trading range but last two days heavy selling seen in USA Market and almost wipe out more  than 700 points wipe out which indicate major sell off in our market on Monday  and open with down side gap.  Over all trend is bearish and any rise to selling opportunity or exit long. Fresh long  should be avoid.  As we have seen a bigger rallied in Nifty from   low of 7893  (Dec. 2016) to high of 11172 (Jan 2018)   Over all gain of 3278 points in just 12 months if calculate on yearly basis almost gained more than 41 percent.  This rally did not see any correction and was one sided up, up and up.  On the other hand, after sharp rally we have seen correction started from Feb. 18.   As we are in a bull market we see correction of 38%. 50% or 61.8% in coming months.   Till Nifty not cross and sustained above 11200,  down side level will be negated.
Nifty  :     Over all  short term trend is bearish with consider major resistance in the month of March   10640-10750- 10880  Any rally of   these level will good opportunity to short side, on the lower level with consider support 10400 and 10300, break down these level, down side open towards 10000 mark thereafter swing low 9687  possible. 
Fibonacci Level  :          As the overall rally which was started from the level of 7893 to 11171. This is a gain of 3278 points .  If Nifty corrects as per Fibonacci level, following levels may be point out.
23.6%   -               10397
38.2%                    9918
50%                        9532
61.8%                    9145 (Mother of Fibonacci)

As per the Nifty Monthly charts, following supports are visible :  10000. 9000-7900-6400.

Time wise Correction  :     Over all Nifty rally lasted around 12.5 months. Taking Feb 18 as the start month, so correction of 38.2% means correction could go for 4.75 months towards end of June 2018,  If we go 50% of time correction means correction could for 6.25 months , towards middle of July 18. If we go 61.8% of time correction means correction would for 7.75 months towards correction up to  Sept  2018.

Bank Nifty   :          After made a high 27652 made a low 24781 which is almost 2900 points correction seen and looks more sell of in coming days can not be ruled.   Time being we may consider resistance 25500-25600 whereas to decent opportunity to sell side, down side break down 24800 on sustainable basis open towards  24683  which is a 200 DMA and break down , open towards 23600-23000 .    On the Monthly charts following levels are visible which is 20300 and 13200.
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1 comment:

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