Wednesday, June 7, 2017

What Is the World Trade Organization?

You may remember seeing news footage of the protests at the doors of the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Third Ministerial Conference held in Seattle, Washington, in 1999. Similar demonstrations against the WTO have also occurred in Italy, Spain, Canada and Switzerland. What is the WTO, and why do so many people oppose it? The following article addresses these questions and concerns regarding the world's only international organization that deals with the global rules of trade.

 
What Is the WTO?

The WTO was born out of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which was established in 1947. A series of trade negotiations, GATT rounds began at the end of World War II and were aimed at reducing tariffs for the facilitation of global trade on goods. The rationale for GATT was based on the Most Favored Nation (MFN) clause, which, when assigned to one country by another, gives the selected country privileged trading rights. As such, GATT aimed to help, all countries obtain MFN-like status so that no single country would be at a trading advantage over others.
The WTO replaced GATT as the world's global trading body in 1995, and the current set of governing rules stems from the Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations, which took place throughout 1986-1994. GATT trading regulations established between 1947 and 1994 (and in particular those negotiated during the Uruguay Round) remain the primary rule book for multilateral trade in goods. Specific sectors such as agriculture have been addressed, as well as issues dealing with anti-dumping.

 The Uruguay Round also laid the foundations for regulating trade in services. The General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) is the guideline directing multilateral trade in services. Intellectual property rights were also addressed in the establishment of regulations protecting the trade and investment of ideas, concepts, designs, patents, and so forth.
The purpose of the WTO is to ensure that global trade commences smoothly, freely and predictably. The WTO creates and embodies the legal ground rules for global trade among member nations and thus offers a system for international commerce. The WTO aims to create economic peace and stability in the world through a multilateral system based on consenting member states (currently there are slightly more than 140 members) that have ratified the rules of the WTO in their individual countries as well. This means that WTO rules become a part of a country's domestic legal system. The rules, therefore, apply to local companies and nationals in the conduct of business in the international arena. If a company decides to invest in a foreign country, by, for example, setting up an office in that country, the rules of the WTO (and hence, a country's local laws) will govern how that can be done. Theoretically, if a country is a member of the WTO, its local laws cannot contradict WTO rules and regulations, which currently govern approximately 97% of all world trade.
 How It Functions
The current head of the World Trade Organization is Roberto Azevêdo; however, decisions are made by consensus, though a majority vote may also rule (this is very rare). Based in Geneva, Switzerland, the Ministerial Committee, which holds meetings at least every two years, makes the top decisions. There is also a General Council, a Goods Council, Services Council, and an Intellectual Property Rights Council, which all report to the General Council. Finally, there are many working groups and committees.
If a trade dispute occurs, the WTO works to resolve it. If for example, a country erects a trade barrier in the form of a customs duty against a particular country or a particular good, the WTO may issue trade sanctions against the violating country. The WTO will also work to resolve the conflict through negotiations.

Free Trade at What Cost?
The anti-WTO protests we have seen around the world are a response to the consequences of establishing a multilateral trading system. Critics say that the after-effects of WTO policies are undemocratic because of the lack of transparency during negotiations. Opponents also argue that since the WTO functions as a global authority on trade and reserves the right to review a country's domestic trade policies, national sovereignty is compromised. For example, regulations that a country may wish to establish to protect its industry, workers or environment could be considered barriers to the WTO's aim to facilitate free trade. A country may have to sacrifice its own interests to avoid violating WTO agreements. Thus, a country becomes limited in its choices. Moreover, brutal regimes that are pernicious to their own countries may inadvertently be receiving concealed support from foreign governments who continue, in the name of free trade, to do business with these regimes. Unfavorable governments in favor of big business, therefore, remain in power at the cost of a representative government.
One high-profile WTO controversy has to do with intellectual property rights and a government's duty to its citizens versus a global authority. One well-known example is HIV/AIDS treatments and the cost of patented medicines. Poor, very needy countries, such as those in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, simply cannot afford to buy these patented drugs. If they were to buy or manufacture these same drugs under an affordable generic label, which would save thousands of lives, these countries would, as members of the WTO, be in violation of intellectual property rights (TRIPS) agreements and subject to possible trade sanctions.

The Bottom Line

Free trade fosters investment into other countries, which can help boost the economy and eventually the standard of living of all countries involved. As most investment comes from the developed and economically powerful into the developing and less influential economies, there is, however, a tendency for the system to give the investor an advantage. Regulations that facilitate the investment process are in the investor's interest because these regulations help foreign investors maintain an edge over local competition. However, in 2017, as several countries, including the United States strengthen their protectionist stance on trade, the future of the World Trade Organization remains complex and unclear.

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TODAY MARKET….

1.       RBI policy but indicate that status quo will be maintained. 2 pm .
2.       Britain election also impact of the market.
3.       Saudi Arab and Katar    also concern in the market
4.       Gold is moving due to geo-political concern.
5.       Over all cautious approach in over all world market.
6.       There is no weakness in Chart
7.       Nifty – Decent support 9500  - as long above, bulls  favour over all in the market.
8.       Front line PSU stocks to be watch today any decline, our best prefer  SBI.



.....................................................................................................
Market Out LooK
Market  are  continue in trading range but higher level some profit booking seen before the RBI credit policy.  However, trend is positive but higher level profit booking can not be ruled out.  At current level to avoid any long side, dip to good opportunity.

Nifty Spot
As  mentioned in this column 9712 is major resistance zone and it was made a high 9709 and reversal seen resulted closed with a negative bias.  

Nifty Future
Time being consider resistance 9700-9710, till not cross and sustained above, time to sell side.

Bank Nifty Future
Trend is bullish and 23500  is major hurdle on closing basis.  Down side support around 23200-23100 watch out.

PSU Bank Index
Before RBI policy selling seen in all PSU stocks. Now consider support 3450 and closely watch out.

CNX IT
 As long as hold 10300   trend is good . remember we are bullish from the level of 10000 and long side  WIPRO-HCL TECH-TCS .

CNX PHARMA
 Major challenge for bulls 9300… but at current level advise to avoid any short sell  - buy  in small lots for smart pull back which may be happened any time.


 SOME IMPORANT POINT :


TCS
Our long call 2250-2300 (when announced buy back at 2800) and advise to do not hedge position (with a sell in future)
WIPRO
Long call at 500  +   10 percent already appreciated
HCL Tech
Long call at 800   +       10 percent already appreciated.
Apollo tyre
Strong move with added OI     1164 contracts
HCL TECH
Long  added by 1172 contracts
TCS
Decent short covering and fresh long added 2473 contracts
Titan
As mentioned to book profit and fresh long exit reduce OI 1896 contrct
SBI
Before Policy some short seen  OI increased 1165 contracts
IBUL HOUS
After sharp rise profit booking seen and fresh short
Long exit
GSFC, Federal bank, Jet Airways, DLF, Axis Bank.
Short added
Godrej CP , Ajanta Pharma, Bank of India,  SBI
TOP Gainer
Infoedge  (new 52 weeks high), Apollo Tyres –Adani Enterprises.
Securities ban
DLF – GMR INFRA – IBREAL – INFIAM – JP ASSOCIATES – RCO- REL CAPITAL.

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RBI CREDIT POLICY..

Market are cautious before policy

PSU Banks    --  Selling pressure seen
PVT SECTOR BANK   :    Decline to buy side
TYRES STOCK   - Very hot
PHARMA SECTOR   -   Do not think short sell   any time smart move.
IT Segment   :  Follow up buying continue.

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Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Market outlook for 6TH June

Market  are  continue in trading and positive bias and any decline to long side.   However, higher level resistance continue in the market around 9700-9750.
PE RATIO   :  As presently sensex and Nifty are trading with high PE ratio nearly 25  which is likely near to 2010. Now at the current juncture advised to traders to book partial profit and holding trailing stop loss for long side.   Profit protect must at this level.  However, after sharp decline to good opportunity to buy side.
Nifty  : As  mentioned last week that above 9550 strong up move.   Now resistance towards 9700-9712 watch out.
Bank Nifty  :   Trend is bullish with consider support 22950   23000 range as long , now resistance around 23500, crossover it will show real up move and ultimate target 24000.
PSU Bank INDEX  :   Consider support 3400-3450 , and resistance 3600-3650 mark.
SOME IMPORTANT POINTS TO BE WATCH OUT 
Long side  :     
Page Industries   52 percent increase in OI
TITAN    32 percent increase in OI
Raymond :   Long side
NBCC   :   Long side continue.

Long exit :
JSW Steel, GAIL, HDFC BANK, AND Lupin Ltd

Short covering :
Arvind Ltd – britiana Ltd

Short build up :
Infosys,  HCL tech,  Sintex, IFCI
OPEN INTEREST SPURT  : NO. OF CONTRACTS
TITAN                           4434
PAGE IND                      239
IBUL HOUSING   1420
YES BANK                     2023
RELIANCE                     1842
SBI                               1611
INFOSYS                       1363
DLF                              - 625

ICICI                             976
TISCO               860                

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